This report is divided into two parts: the first part and the second part. The first part clarifies the development background and status quo of the new energy vehicle industry from the four aspects of energy, facilities, technology and market; the second part discusses new energy from three aspects : industry chain, industrial layout and investment direction . The preliminary direction and model of automobile investment invitation, and the prospect of the future of the new energy automobile industry.

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Guided reading

At present, the automobile industry is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. "Electrification", "networking", "intelligence" and "sharing" have become recognized future trends.

It is the beginning and symbol of "electrification". In recent years, the world's major automobile powers have expressed their desire to upgrade them to national strategies, and General Secretary Xi Jinping has promoted new energy vehicles to the national level.

The height of one of the seven strategic industries of the home . With a huge market size and a potential consumer group of nearly one billion, China is becoming the main battlefield of the future global auto industry revolution.

New energy vehicle development background

The initial starting point of advocating and developing new energy vehicles is inseparable from "oil depletion" and "greenhouse effect" . With the vigorous promotion of the concept of energy saving and environmental protection and the gradual improvement of science and technology, new

Energy vehicles came into being.

1. Clean energy

In the past five years, the proportion of clean energy consumption in China has increased significantly, reaching 22.67% in 2019, but the proportion of fossil energy consumption is still close to 80%. The wide application of new energy vehicles will optimize energy consumption.

The fee structure plays a positive role.

Data source: Compiled by BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook

(Note: The proportional data is in the round system, so the sum may not be equal to 100%)

As the largest country in the world's automobile market, how to meet the energy needs of future automobile development and change the structure of automobile energy consumption is not only related to the development of the automobile industry, but also to the country.

A major issue of domestic energy security.

Exploitation scene of Karamay Oilfield

2. Prohibition action

As countries pay more attention to environmental protection and energy security, and the technology of electric vehicles is becoming more and more mature, more and more countries have given time to stop the production of fuel vehicles.

surface.

Source: Based on public information

Since 2016, 8 countries have successively put forward a statement on the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles , mainly countries with leading European concepts and innovative policy actions, such as the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany

Wait.

There are also some cities and regions with advanced concepts that also support the "banning" action   through declarations or agreements , such as the four-city mayor agreement of "Paris, Madrid, Athens, Mexico City" ,

California in the United States , which has independent legislative power, and Hainan , a special economic zone in China, etc.

China has not yet officially announced the timing of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, but there has been a lot of discussion in the industry. In June 2020, the China Petroleum Consumption Total Control and Policy Research Project released the "Chinese Traditional

"Research on the Exit Progress and Environmental Benefit Assessment of Fuel Vehicles " , which focuses on the full , and proposes corresponding safeguard measures.

In addition, judging from the time and plans announced by various domestic and foreign car companies, traditional fuel vehicles are also about to gradually withdraw from the market from the supply side .

Source: Based on public information

However, it should be noted that the vigorous development of electrified vehicles does not mean the end of the "fuel vehicle era", but a gradual departure from the mainstream travel mode with fuel vehicles, ushering in more diversification

travel era.

infrastructure

Fixed asset investment and infrastructure construction in transportation and related fields are one of the prerequisites for the rapid growth of the output value of the auto industry. At the same time, China's auto industry, with its increasing production capacity, has become a new

The sustained and rapid development of the energy vehicle industry provides advanced technology research and development capabilities, strong capital injection and sound industrial infrastructure.

According to the development of the backbone expressway network and the new energy transportation in various regions, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed the construction plan of the intercity fast charging network of "piling station first" and "four vertical and four horizontal".

Electricity infrastructure has continued to grow rapidly.

Data source: "Annual Report on the Development of China's Charging Infrastructure" each year

As can be seen from the above table, today, on average, every 3.5 new energy vehicles can have one charging pile.

Data source: 2019-2020 "Annual Report on the Development of China's Charging Infrastructure"

It is foreseeable that the eastern region, where the charging facilities are densely distributed, will still be the broadest expansion space for the new energy vehicle market.

New energy vehicle charging pile

At present, there are nearly 100,000 gas stations in China, and the number of charging piles has reached more than 500,000. From a probabilistic point of view, finding a charging pile in the future is more likely than finding a gas station

Much more , residences, companies, hotels, shopping malls, charging stations, and almost every corner .

Related technology development

Since Karl Benz invented the first modern car in 1885, the automotive industry has never been the meeting point of so many technological changes, involving energy, transportation, communications, computers, and more.

many industries. From the oil crisis of the 1970s, when an American company launched the CitiCar electric car, to Toyota's official launch of the Prius in 1997, to Tesla's launch in 2008

Roadster two-seater electric sports car, Tesla launched Model S in 2012, the evolution of electric vehicles is inseparable from the development support of technology.

  The key technologies of new energy vehicles include the "three major" battery systems, powertrains, and high-voltage electronic control of functional systems; intelligent vehicle networking technology and big data applications; unmanned driving

etc., are currently in steady development and improvement. The following will select the three perspectives of power battery, Internet of Vehicles, and autonomous driving to analyze the development status of the new energy vehicle industry.

1. Power battery

The power battery is an energy storage device and the core component of an electric vehicle. Its performance will directly affect the market application and consumer acceptance of electric vehicles. However, the cost of power batteries accounts for

The ratio is 40%-60%, and the weight ratio is 20%-40%. It is a difficult problem that must be paid attention to and optimized in the development of new energy vehicles. It requires material development, battery design, manufacturing, system integration, and business models.

Explore and make breakthroughs in many aspects . 

1.1 Classification 

  New energy vehicle power batteries can be divided into two categories: batteries and fuel cells. Batteries are used for pure electric vehicles (EV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV); fuel cells are dedicated to fuel

Battery Vehicle (FCV).

The battery is the only power source for the drive system in pure electric vehicles, mainly including nickel-cadmium, nickel-hydrogen and lithium-ion batteries. At present, lithium-ion batteries are in a stage of rapid development, Toyota Prius

Lithium-ion batteries are used in new energy vehicles such as plug-in, Tesla Model S, GM Volt, Ford Focus EV and BMW i3. In addition, lithium resources are relatively abundant and the price is moderate.

The most promising power battery in the market.

New energy vehicle lithium battery

A fuel cell is a device in which fuel and oxidant react directly into electrical energy through electrode reactions. The fuel cell does not need to be charged and has a high specific energy (specific energy refers to the

The amount of electrical energy released by the electrode material per unit mass, the typical unit is Wh/kg or Wh/L), long service life, less maintenance workload, and continuous high-power power supply, etc.

The same driving range as the car.

New energy vehicle fuel cell

One of the biggest advantages of a fuel cell is that it uses hydrogen. Hydrogen is abundant in nature and can be well connected to existing infrastructure in terms of refueling. In the future, drivers will only need to

Drive into the gas station and replace the fuel cell in just a few minutes.

However, there are still many challenges in the practical application of hydrogen fuel cell technology, such as: hydrogen purification is very difficult; the process of electrolyzing water to extract hydrogen consumes a lot of electricity; the process of extracting hydrogen from petroleum

Environmental issues are involved ; hydrogen is flammable and difficult to detect, etc.

1.2 Technology Development

The development of new energy vehicle power battery systems involves materials, chemistry, mechanics, thermodynamics, heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electricity, systems and control, and its key technologies include battery assembly

technology , thermal management technology, power management technology and safety management technology. At present, improving battery energy density and reducing production costs are the main technological breakthrough directions at this stage.

Currently, the fastest growing power battery category is lithium batteries. Looking at its development trend, the growth rate of lithium batteries can maintain an average annual rate of nearly 25% and the cost will continue to decline. It is expected that by 2025, the

The average cost of power batteries will drop by 35% compared with 2017; by then, innovative battery technology will also be commercialized, effectively enhancing the battery life and safety of new energy vehicles

The cost structure of the car is optimized.

Source: Based on public information

In recent years, my country's power battery technology has made great progress, especially the energy density and material system of the battery system have been improved significantly. According to the statistics of the recommended catalogue of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the battery system of pure electric passenger vehicle

The average energy density has continued to increase from 104.3Wh/kg in the first batch in 2017 to 152.6Wh/kg in the seventh batch in 2020, and the average energy density has increased by 46.3% in three and a half years, which greatly alleviates mileage anxiety.

Tesla has also been working on developing batteries with a million-mile range. The American technology media Elec-trek recently reported that the Canadian electric power company led by Tesla battery expert Jeff Dahn

The Chi research team is about to break through the technical barriers of new battery energy density. After breaking this barrier , the energy density of next-generation battery cells is expected to reach "revolutionary unprecedented heights" and electric

Your car 's battery will also last longer.

1.3 Lithium battery suppliers

CATL is the world's leading power battery system provider, focusing on the R&D, production and sales of new energy vehicle power battery systems and energy storage systems.

Set of domestic Tesla M3 standard battery life version. Since the beginning of this year, CATL has accelerated its industrial layout. It has been reported that it has cooperated with Mercedes-Benz in development, cooperated with Schneider, and formed a joint venture with Weilai (Anhui) Holdings Co., Ltd.

Established Wuhan Weineng Battery Assets Co., Ltd. and other news.

Ningde Times Headquarters in Ningde City, Fujian Province

On June 24, 2020, CATL's 21C innovation laboratory officially laid the foundation stone in Ningde, Fujian, aiming to explore the frontier basic problems in the field of energy storage and conversion by relying on CATL's engineering R&D strength.

question. The 21C innovation laboratory has a total investment of 3.3 billion and covers an area of ​​about 270 acres. It is expected to be completed and partially planned to develop to a scale of 1,000 people in the next five years, and realize the production of independent innovation achievements.

industrialization.

2. Internet of Vehicles

The Internet of Vehicles is to use the new generation of information and communication technology to realize the all-round network connection of the car, the car and the car, the car and the road, the car and the person, and the car and the service platform.

Driving ability to build a new format of automobile and transportation services.

From the perspective of vehicle use, positioning, management, and maintenance, the Internet of Vehicles technology has completely penetrated into every link of new energy vehicles, such as sensors, on-board processors, and on-board terminal control systems.

system, charging equipment management system, charging station monitoring, etc. In addition, the Internet of Vehicles can be used for battery monitoring and management modules . The power supply of new energy vehicles is one of the most important components, and its data analysis,

Detection and fault warning are particularly important. Through the Internet of Vehicles, the core data of the battery can be captured, and all the data in the car can be transmitted to the cloud platform for analysis.

Schematic diagram of the concept of the Internet of Vehicles

Connected cars and digitization will change the way the automotive industry works and promise huge benefits in the future. When the era of driverless cars comes, we can do various things while the car is driving.

all kinds of things. For example, a connected car could allow occupants to browse the web, read . Moreover, the company will not only produce cars in the future, but also expect to be able to operate and manage cars.

A digital platform for car connectivity .

Application Scope of Internet of Vehicles Technology

China's Internet of Vehicles industry has broad prospects. In 2019, the scale of the Internet of Vehicles market will exceed 190 billion yuan. With the further application of Internet of Vehicles technology, the scale of China's Internet of Vehicles market will continue to expand.

Data source: Compiled by China Business Industry Research Institute

In recent years, the domestic car networking market has developed rapidly. The state has issued supporting policies and standards many times to promote the development of the industry, and local governments have also continuously put forward guiding opinions and plans. February 24, 2020, Development and Reform

The Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy", which provided guiding opinions for the intelligentization . The development of smart cars has put forward high demands on the Internet of Vehicles technology.

As the best carrier for the development of smart cars , new energy vehicles are increasingly closely related to the Internet of Vehicles technology.

3. Unmanned driving

Unmanned driving and Internet of Vehicles technology are the inside and outside of each other. Unmanned driving technology is the only way to build a strong transportation country and develop smart cars. With the popularization of 5G construction and the continuous development of artificial intelligence, the future

The safety factor of unmanned driving will gradually increase.

  At the same time, pure electric vehicles have excellent compatibility with autonomous driving technology compared with internal combustion engine vehicles .

Machine hardware equipment is efficiently connected, and the application of driverless technology to pure electric vehicles can achieve higher efficiency.

Unmanned driving is the mega trend of future car transportation. Drivers will not need to put their hands on the steering wheel to drive the car and perform other activities while commuting like other passengers. Furthermore, no one

Driving can alleviate traffic congestion, improve the efficiency of vehicle fuel use, and ensure driving safety by reducing the negative impact of human factors on road safety and increasing road traffic.

The table below is a schematic diagram of the development stages of driverless technology. The current driverless technology is gradually moving towards the L4 stage.

Source: Based on public information

Internet-connected cars and unmanned driving together with big data will create greater value in the future. Whether it is vehicle driving data or in-vehicle data, such as web page records of people in the car, all information is

will be collected. By interpreting the collected vehicle data, driving data and web browsing data can provide users with more accurate services and products. According to KPMG estimates, in the long run

See, 1 connected car will generate as much revenue as 10 non-connected cars over its lifetime.

New energy vehicle market analysis

With the opening of the new four modernizations of automobiles - electrification, intelligence, networking, and sharing, the century-old automobile industry is standing on the eve of the dawn of great changes and reshuffles.

1. Development overview

In July 2020, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the State Council, said at a press conference on the development of the industrial communication industry in the first half of the year that China's new energy vehicle industry is currently the world leader in scale.

The production and sales volume has ranked first in the world for five consecutive years, and the cumulative number of new energy vehicles promoted has exceeded 4.5 million , accounting for more than 50% of the world's total.

However, under the vigorous development of new energy vehicles in my country, there are hidden reefs in the industry. The accelerated decline of the national subsidy policy and the current impact of the epidemic have affected the production and sales of new energy vehicles.

became a certain influence. Therefore, facing the critical stage of the transformation of the automobile industry, China still needs to give certain support in preferential policies and technology research and development.

1.1 Production and Sales Analysis

In the past three years, China's auto industry has been in a "cold winter", and the output has been declining year by year. However, with the continuous updating and development of new energy vehicle technology and the vigorous support of national policies, China's new

The proportion of energy vehicles in automobile production and sales is getting higher and higher.

  In terms of output, in  2019, China produced a total of 1.242 million new energy vehicles, down 4% from 2018. The main reason is that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has declined, which has brought a lot to the industry.

influence . However, the proportion of new energy vehicles in automobile production and sales is still on the rise.

Affected by the epidemic, as of January-June 2020, China's new energy vehicle production reached 397,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.5%.

Data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

  In terms of production proportion , China's new energy vehicle production in 2019 was 1.242 million units, accounting for 4.83% of the total car production. In the first quarter of 2020, my country's new energy vehicle production under the influence of the epidemic

The proportion fell to 3.02%.

Data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

  In terms of sales , a total of 1.206 million new energy vehicles were sold nationwide in 2019, down 4.1% from 2018. From January to June 2020, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 393,000 units, a year-on-year decrease

37.4%.

Data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

  In terms of sales volume , China's car sales in 2019 were 25.769 million units, of which new energy vehicle sales were 1.206 million units, accounting for 4.68% of total car sales.

In the first quarter of 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream consumption dropped sharply, and the overall automobile market in my country was relatively weak. The sales of new energy vehicles that were not mainstream models were hit, and the proportion of sales decreased.

to 3.10%.

Data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

  Although the market share of new energy vehicles in my country is currently small, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country have increased steadily year by year from 2015 to 2019, and the development trend is good.

On March 30, 2020, at the press conference held by the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology made it clear that it would stabilize and expand the consumption of automobiles, and urged all regions to speed up production

Taiwan's policies and measures to stimulate automobile consumption; and adjust the new energy vehicle policy to further promote the coordinated and healthy development of the automobile industry. After the epidemic, my country's new energy vehicle market share in the automotive industry

The overall proportion is expected to increase.

1.2 Brand Analysis

  China's new energy vehicle industry is now in a situation of "three parts of the world": one is the transformation of traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Great Wall, and Geely;

Companies that have entered the Internet companies that start from "0".

Overall, brands such as BYD, BAIC, SAIC, Geely and Chery are still very competitive, and the market structure of traditional independent brands has not changed significantly. The market structure of emerging brands has initially formed,

Ideal , NIO and Xiaopeng have developed relatively rapidly and have been successfully listed . Evergrande Motor also announced that it plans to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Science and Technology Innovation Board.

a: Sales Analysis

New energy passenger vehicle manufacturers can be divided into three camps according to their backgrounds: traditional independent brands, new local automakers, and foreign (joint venture) brands.

According to the statistics of the China Passenger Car Association, the top 20 car companies by sales in 2020H1 are from high to low: BYD, Tesla, SAIC Motor, GAC New Energy, BAIC New Energy, BMW Brilliance, NIO, FAW

Volkswagen, Shanghai Tong Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen, Chery, Great Wall, Ideal, Weimar, Geely, SAIC- GM, Changan, GAC Toyota, Hezhong, Xiaopeng; the corresponding market share is 19.0%, 14.8%,

6.7%, 6.5%, 5.6%, 5.0%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 3.7%, 3.5%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.5%, 2.4%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.6% , 1.3%; the total accounted for 97.2%.

Among them, there are 8 traditional self-owned brands , accounting for 48.8% in total; 5 new local automakers, accounting for 12.5% ​​in total; 7 foreign (joint venture) brands, accounting for 35.9% in total.

Data source: National Passenger Car Market Association (CPCA)

As can be seen from the table above, BYD, SAIC, GAC and other established car companies have a solid market position; new car manufacturers have performed well, with Tesla, NIO, Ideal, WM Motor, Hezhong, and Xiaopeng ranking in sales.

2nd, 7th, 13th, 14th, 19th, 20th respectively . 

According to the latest statistics, Tesla took the top spot in the pure electric market in July this year. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in July, Tesla still ranked first in pure electric vehicles with 11,000 units.

The volume reached 14,000, a year-on-year increase of 174%. Tesla has gradually developed into a core force in the new energy vehicle market.

At present, the regional demand of major automakers varies greatly. Tesla is concentrated in markets above the big cities, with megacities accounting for 40% of the market. Xpeng and NIO's customer demand matches Tesla's

Recently , the demand in the high-end market is relatively concentrated. BYD, SAIC Motor, Geely, etc. have relatively balanced shares in various markets, and the performance of megacities and county and township markets is slightly stronger.

Chery, Great Wall , Wuling and other markets are mainly in small and medium cities. If the market of SAIC-GM-Wuling, Chery and Changan can be greatly developed, the development potential

will really explode.

b: brand dynamics

On August 27, 2020, Xiaopeng Motors was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange with an issue price of US$15 per share and the stock code "XPEV". This is the third company in the United States after Weilai and Ideal Auto.

China's new car-making force that was successfully listed on the national stock exchange.

Evergrande Xu Jiayin's car-making road has attracted a lot of attention from the very beginning. On August 3, 2020, Evergrande released 6 new models in one breath, and Hengchi 1-6 was officially unveiled, covering sedans, coupe,

Passenger car models such as SUVs, MPVs, and crossovers have sparked heated discussions in the market.

On September 15, Evergrande Automobile announced that it raised HK$4 billion through the placement of new shares, and was significantly oversubscribed in a short period of time. Investors introduced by Evergrande include Tencent, Didi and other mutual investors.

Internet giants , as well as top international investment funds such as Yunfeng Fund and Sequoia Capital.

2. Talking about the impact of the epidemic

During the COVID-19 outbreak, China's manufacturing supply chain has been under tremendous pressure, with factories in various regions closed on a large scale, transportation has been severely restricted, and production and distribution routes have been disrupted. middle

China's auto industry has not been immune to the impact of the epidemic, with car sales falling 18% in January. Restricted travel, delayed resumption of work, reduced income of residents, and further suppressed demand for car purchases have

For new energy vehicles that are not yet fully stabilized and mature, it is even more difficult.

Through this epidemic, the emerging sales model of "online official website car booking + offline direct sales centre" has become a safer and more effective solution for the sales system. When the focus of traditional car companies is still on

The laying of offline 4S stores, Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other new car-making forces have already been fully implemented. They abandoned the 4S store sales model from the very beginning, innovated offline physical store experience and test drive, online

Order custom production .

"Online official website car booking + offline direct sales centre" has replaced the direct sales model of traditional 4S stores. It is not only the safest and most reliable sales model during the epidemic, but also reduces dealers'

The circulation link can reduce the user's purchase cost and make the price more transparent. In addition, direct sales can better ensure the high quality of service quality, enabling car companies to grasp user data in a timely manner, laying a solid foundation for corporate strategy setting

Base.

Tesla Online Store

The epidemic has undoubtedly had a major impact on the Chinese auto industry. But on the other hand, it has also caused a major reflection in the industry, from the development direction, sales model, to how to use sustainable

and technological innovation as the theme to further promote the future development of the industry.

Note: The data in this report are all from the National Bureau of Statistics, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, National Passenger Vehicle Market Association, China Business Research Institute, government public documents, etc. While striving for precision,

For reference only . Any opinions expressed in the report are for informational purposes only.

Copyright © 2020 by Shanghai Mobo Wulian Enterprise Management Co., Ltd.

No reproduction or publication in any form is allowed without permission.

  author

Wang Lan

Ministry of Industrial Buildings

18860928984 (same number on WeChat)

wanglan@ldjt-china.com

please contact

Zhuang Zhen

Manager of Industrial Building Industry Department

 Tel: 0086 189 1352 9800

Email: zhuangzhen@ldjt-china.com

Juli Zhuang

ding department manager

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Email:zhuangzhen@ldjt-china.com